What would be the worst outcome (not counting nuclear war) of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? The worst outcome, I think, would be success. That is, success for Putin. His dream of unifying Russia and Ukraine under Moscow’s authority would be a nightmare for most of us, and especially for the Ukrainians.
Speaking of the Ukrainians, their fierce defense against the Russian military is an inspiration. It is inspiring because of the courage it represents but also because it is carried out in the name of democracy.
Trouble began brewing about nine years ago when Ukraine started to strengthen its ties to the European Union. Putin did not like this and, probably because of Putin’s objections, Ukraine’s president Yanukovych tried to block a pending association agreement with the EU. Ukrainians objected and began protesting, occupying Independence Square in the heart of Kyiv. Yanukovych’s efforts to intimidate and suppress the protestors failed and he soon fled to Russia where he remains today. He was eventually convicted of treason in absentia by the Ukrainian government.
The courage of the Ukrainians in facing down Yanukovych’s efforts to crush them was a foreshadowing of what we are seeing today. Their fierce and so far effective resistance against the Russian military shows that even if they are forced to give up Kyiv to the advancing enemy, the country as whole will almost certainly be ungovernable. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky deserves a lot of credit. His personal courage has played a major part in the ongoing anti-Russian resistance. Given all this, I believe the worst possible outcome – Putin’s successful takeover – is unlikely.
More likely are one of two alternatives. The best would be action within the Russian government that forces Putin to give up the assault within the next few weeks. This could only come about if enough well-placed Russian leaders decide that Putin’s policy is damaging the nation’s reputation and its economy badly enough that he has to be restrained or even removed from office. That would be an outcome that practically the entire world could celebrate.
Also possible, but more tragic, would be a drawn out struggle in which Russians try to occupy Ukraine but, month after month, continue to take casualties and face steady resistance from the local population. This would almost certainly result in an eventual withdrawal and again, a democratic and independent Ukraine.
So, here’s how I would rate the chances of each of these possibilities happening:
Putin Successfully Conquers Ukraine 5%
Putin Forced to Give Up Within Weeks 20%
Long Struggle Leading to Democratic Ukraine 75%
Like most of the world’s people, I am hoping fervently for result number 2.
In the mean time, here are some pictures from world capitals.
New York - In Ukraine’s National Colors
Liverpool
Paris, London
Rome
Berlin
Saint Petersburg, Russia
(The sign says “No to War”)
President Zelensky
