Is April of 2014 too early to make presidential predictions
for 2016? Well, not for me because I am a political junkie.
It’s going to be Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton.
I
feel sure that they both plan to run and that nobody in their respective
parties is capable of stopping them.
So who would win a Bush v. Clinton race? I
think Hillary has the edge. Now, before you call your bookie, I should point
out that my record on predictions is not stellar. In 1980, when the GOP
nominated Ronald Reagan, I felt that Carter was a shoo-in for re-election. I
had lived in California for six years of Reagan’s governorship, so I knew him
to be a class-A doofus of very limited intelligence. “The American people don’t
want a not-too-bright doofus for president!” I confidently told myself.
I was wrong.
So, Nate Silver, I am not. But here is my thinking.
Hillary’s main weaknesses are her age and the baggage that comes with
connections to a controversial political family. Jeb being in his sixties (albeit not
as deep into his sixties as is Hillary) will somewhat ameliorate her vulnerability on the
age issue.
As for the, “Haven’t we had
enough of that family?” factor, only Jeb Bush invalidates that
point against her. In fact he more than invalidates it, given the obvious comparison
between the disastrous W. presidency as opposed to the economically sound,
balanced-budget Clinton era.
Where the Electoral College is concerned, I expect
that Jeb will take Florida since he’s still fairly popular here, and Hillary
will take Pennsylvania. The winner of Ohio, as usual, will be the winner of the
general election.
Jeb has an advantage in being married to a
Hispanic woman and having mastered the Spanish language. He may attract more
Hispanic voters than the typical GOP candidate. But Hillary has the advantage
of being the first viable presidential candidate who can confidently claim to truly get women’s issues.
In the end, I believe Hillary has the edge
mainly because of this: Jeb has to deal with the Republican Party. The Tea
Party will hammer him during the primaries and probably force him to move right
on a number of issues. In order to get the nomination, he may have to take
nutty positions on gay marriage, global warming or immigration. Ultimately,
the GOP may split into two, with one faction forming a new, officially
independent Tea Party, while the other tries to maintain an Eisenhowerish
moderate conservative position. Such a split might bring about a Republican
resurgence, but I expect this would only happen after the 2016 election.
I will say up front that I sincerely hope that our
next president is Hillary, or some other progressive Democrat. This is partly on
general principles, but very specifically because the next president is going
to shape the Supreme Court in a big way. The latest justices appointed to the Supreme Court have been on the young side, and this is no doubt because both W and Obama wanted to have their influence on that court be enduring. And one thing this country does not
need is a Supreme Court that goes on for decades making decisions like Citizens
United and McCutcheon - decisions that guarantee ever more corruption in our electoral politics.
May God (or Nate Silver or someone like that) save us, then, from another Bush presidency.
