Democrats versus Putinistas

I watched enough of the Democratic debate last Wednesday to see Elizabeth Warren beat up Mike Bloomberg and to see Amy Klobuchar show her irritable side to Pete Buttigieg. This was the feistiest debate of the season and quite a few observers fell back on the “circular firing squad” metaphor to describe it. Nonetheless, all the participants did survive, some a bit more wounded than others.

Bloomberg took the heaviest hits. If you believe Elizabeth Warren - and you’d be foolish not to – Mike Bloomberg is a racially insensitive old codger who talks about women as though he were a crude, arrogant jock in a 1950s locker room. Bloomberg’s failure to handle the  criticism from Warren, Bernie and other fellow Democrats [editor’s note: Bloomberg is a Democrat these days] was telling. Just as damaging as his stop-and-frisk policy and his misogyny were his total failure to prepare convincing responses to criticisms that a blind man could see coming. Why didn’t his team prepare him more effectively to counter these attacks?

Part of the answer, I believe, was revealed in comments by Andrew Yang who, having dropped out of the race, is now a commentator for CNN. Yang, whom I very much admire, seems not at all hostile to Mike Bloomberg, but he pointed out that the mayor can be resistant to change. Things did not go well for Mike during visits to Iowa and New Hampshire when he first planned to enter the race. He gradually realized that to succeed in those states, he was going to have to spend hours hanging out with anyone who wanted to talk to him, chatting in local cafes and people’s living rooms in order to win them over one by one. He decided that was not his thing and switched to his strategy of aiming for Super Tuesday delegates by swamping the media with thousands and thousands of ads that make him look like a capable leader who is best buds with Barack Obama. In other words, he decided to buy the nomination. I do not hate him for this, though it does make me think that our electoral processes need…some tweaking?

Maybe Bloomberg’s motto should be “I don’t have time for you, but vote for me, cuz…look at all my money!”

Let me be clear: If Bloomberg gets the nomination, I will vote for him in a New York minute.

Another point Andrew Yang made as a CNN discussant was that Bloomberg’s people (he has a lot of people) were calling donors encouraging them not to support other Democrats now that Bloomberg is on the rise. Yang knows this because one of his donors told him he had received such a call. It’s not clear that Bloomberg’s campaign to cut off his rivals’ funds is working, but it is true that some candidates are so strapped for cash that they may well drop out within a couple of weeks. This is true of Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Warren. Bernie is doing well with his army of enthusiastic small-scale donors. Biden could also be in trouble. However, if he does quite well in the South Caroline primary (February 29), and particularly if Bloomberg continues to look like an arrogant jerk, Joe may start to attract donors who have been skeptical up till now.

But the upshot of all this is that the Democratic convention might be contested. If I were going to predict - and at this point why not? – I would say some combination of Bernie, Bloomberg, and Biden will roll into Milwaukee with significant delegates, but none with a majority. The rules, to which Bernie objects these days, say that the nomination will go to whichever candidate can garner a majority of delegates. On the first ballot, when delegates are pledged to abide by their primary voters’ preferences, there are 3,979 available delegates and a majority would be 1,990. If nobody wins a majority on the first ballot (quite likely, the way things are going), delegates are released from their pledges and can vote as they please. Plus, about 800 more “super delegates” will now be eligible, and these are likely to be traditional Democrats, more sympathetic to a Joe Biden or Amy Klobuchar than to Bernie. Of course, Bernie’s enthusiastic army of supporters can’t be dismissed, and neither can Bloomberg’s billions, so, a contested convention could be a very newsworthy event. But not, let us hope, a suicidal bloodletting.

Sixty years ago, in July of 1960, I was at Boy Scout camp during that year’s dramatic Democratic convention. My family was Republican, so I wasn’t excited about it, but all the other guys in our cabin were and they anxiously watched the delegate count as it stacked up throughout the evening. John Kennedy was favored to win, but Lyndon Johnson had threatened to block him on the first ballot. If Johnson had succeeded in blocking Kennedy, LBJ might well have won on a second ballot vote. However, when the last state, Wyoming, cast all of its 15 votes for Kennedy, JFK was over the top with his majority and my cabin went crazy with joy. That was the first time I witnessed the effects of Kennedy’s charisma. My Boy Scout buddies were besotted with it. In any case, the good news is that despite the bitter struggle between Johnson and Kennedy, they united at the convention and went on to win the White House.

No matter who gets the Democratic nomination, I hope from the bottom of my weary and battered heart that he or she will pull the party together and win the election. 

The incompetent crook now occupying the White House has recently dismissed his Director of National Intelligence, after he was told by that DNI that Putin is once again interfering in our election and, as in 2016, trying to help Trump win. The fired DNI has been replaced with Richard Grenell, a devoted Trumpian utterly lacking in experience in intelligence. I’m tempted to add “and utterly lacking in intelligence,” but, to be fair, I know little about this particular Trumpian.

Putin to Trump: “You keep your base fired up while I handle these other trouble-makers.”

So here we are, America, the Democrats – including, among others, Bernie the Independent Democratic Socialist, Bloomberg, the former Republican, and Joe the holding-on-for-dear-life traditionalist – are banging away at each other, while Trump works on his swagger. Meanwhile, back in the Kremlin, Trump’s soulmate concocts ever more fiendish schemes aimed at poisoning our democracy.

But, we can handle this, America, am I right?